Saturday, October 1, 2011

4.3 Stockpiling vs. Current Production

Much like any other patch, I will be stockpiling heavily in the upcoming weeks (months). However, I have been having an issue regarding cost analysis and stockpiling. Before I go into this any further, I'll break down what I will be stockpiling:

Jewelcrafting

  • Red gems and orange gems (all uncut) as high priority
    • Red gems are pretty self-explanatory. With the new transmutes coming, red epic gems will be in high demand. Having 5 transmute alts, I want to be as prepared as I can to unload as many epic red gems as possible onto the AH. However, the majority of the raiding/PvPing community won't opt for epic gems because of the pricetag, which will keep prices on rare gems up.
  • Metas
    • Meta gems will also spike in price as they do each patch.
  • All other uncut gems
    •  I am stockpiling other uncut rares too because selling them now is simply not nearly as profitable as what I will be able to sell them for in 4.3. This also includes saving blue, green, and yellow uncut gems for PvP necklaces and rings when the new batch of PvP craftables gets introduced. 
  • Elementium/obsidium ore
    • Another self-explanatory item: ore. I've already prospected roughly ~1500 stacks of ore to produce gems and enchanting mats, but I'm also tucking away a few hundred stacks in case belt buckle prices jump or a new market develops from them. There is no reason to prospect everything this early.
  • Daily Tokens
    • Although new epic patterns likely won't be introduced via JC daily tokens, I am continuing to run the daily in case Chimera's Eye prices skyrocket. There is no downside to stocking up on tokens, so you might as well continue doing it. 
  • Carnelians/Heartblossom
    • The transmute elements for inferno rubies will be much cheaper now than after patch. I'm not stockpiling these mats, but rather buying them in bulk at discount and crafting rubies to stockpile.
Enchanting

  • MAELSTROM CRYSTALS!
    • Word has already hit the street on my server to start stocking up on these for the patch, but I was still able to snag a solid stockpile once news of the Shatter popped up. Demand for crystals will grow exponentially with the patch.
  • Heavenly Shards
    • Even though these will likely be driven down in price, that does not mean they are not worthy investments. High-end enchanting scrolls will still need them and the manner by which I acquire them now does not require me to pilfer them off the AH. I get the entirety of my Heavenly Shard supply from the shuffle and Stormforged Shoulders.
  • Greater Cosmic Essence
    • Self-explanatory. Essences are required for almost every relevant end-game/PvP enchant in the game. The market for GCEs has been relatively volatile in the past month, with price swings on my server from 40-70g.
Tailoring

  • Dreamcloth
    • BoE raiding gear will require Dreamcloth as a primary material. Right now, the only thing Dreamcloth is really useful for is selling spellthreads and the occasional BoE if prices are right. Margins will be much higher with 4.3 on Dreamcloth.
  • Embersilk Cloth
    • I'm buying any cloth that hits the AH under 50g a stack now. I plan on using the majority of the cloth for the new PvP sets that will come out. Since I play on a PvP server, these will sell like hotcakes at premium prices all day long. For anyone playing on a server like Sargeras, Illidan, Tichondrius, Kel'thuzad, etc., it's a huge mistake to not hit this market. 
Stockpiling Dilemma

As mentioned before, right now I am in a dilemma regarding stockpiling vs. selling on all of the JC and enchanting markets. On my server, ore is still readily available, sitting at 40-50g a stack. I'm buying anything under 43g and still getting regular shipments from farmers via CoD at 30-40g. Over the past month, the gem market has steadily declined. Red gems have been sitting anywhere from 80-100g with heavy supply, orange/purple gems 15-25g with heavy supply and yellow/green/blue anywhere from 5-20g. However, in the past week or so, gem prices have started to rebound. Red gems are slowly pushing over 100g and hybrids are back in the 30-40g range consistently. Meta gems have almost doubled in value over the past few weeks. Supply for all gems across the board has decreased while ore prices have steadied.

Meanwhile, in the scroll market, prices have skyrocketed. I completely abandoned making scrolls and started stockpiling a month ago because almost every single scroll (not including Windwalk, Power Torrent, and Landslide) were not turning profits. It was actually more beneficial to sell the mats. But as enchanting mats have dwindled on the AH, scroll prices have shot through the roof. 

In short, the dilemma is: there is good profit to be made right now and I've got a huge supply of mats to take advantage of it. BUT with a lucrative patch lurking, how can I afford shedding any stock right now? While I think it's important to have the stock to supply the demand for the new patch, I also think it's important to be the first "back to market." By that, I mean that a large portion of my competitors have given up or reined back their coverage of markets. If I can get back in and establish the pricing of scrolls and gems, I stand to make massive profits. I think I will give it another week of monitoring and try to make a splash back into scrolls and gems, but for the meantime I will continue stockpiling. 


2 comments:

  1. I've run into the exact same situation. Over the past couple of days I've been unloading gems and enchants at prices that are higher than I would have expected in 4.3.

    The interesting thing is though, I feel as if it may be due to the large number of people stockpiling the gems they would usually post early in the week.

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  2. It seems on my server that there are quite a few people trying to take advantage of the stagnant markets now too. I've seen a handful of people trying to reset fast-moving markets like gems. I've been fairly successful taking advantage of their follies (reposting gem walls with large undercuts to force them to buy, etc.) For the most part though, I'm just continuing to cut and sell gems as much as I can. My stockpile continues to grow as I keep selling, which is probably the best scenario. I'm rather surprised though to see ore prices as consistent levels though still. I expected to see them rise, but I guess farmers are opting to move as many stacks as they can at the cost of per/unit profit.

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