Lessons from 4.2...

                                                           A typical week...




Some basic and advanced lessons we can learn from the booming 4.2 shuffling markets:

1. Understand the effects patches have on raw materials. 

• Inevitably new patches bring new gear, which necessitates a higher demand for supplies across the board; decreasing the supply of everything from obsidium ore to hypnotic dust and increasing the price and spending threshold that buyers set. 
• However, one important thing that many people overlook is the way in which patches change the manner of obtaining raw mats. A perfect example of this in patch 4.2 is Heavenly Shards. With the changes to Justice Points and Valor Points in 4.2 that de-emphasized Heroics and emphasized running old T11 content and ZA/ZG heroics, the manner in which players obtained the majority of their Heavenly Shards now changed. Prior to the patch, players got their shards from disenchanting heroic gear/346 JP gear/regular dungeon gear. But, as many players turned their attention to vendors and content that rewarded "purple gear," people had to rely more on shuffling ore for JC items (necks/rings) to provide this raw mat. This transition of characters across the board to higher level gear had a direct effect on the ways in which essential materials were obtained, which also segues into my next point: 

2. Understand the connections between raw materials.

• Most goblins are already well-versed in the enchanting/JC/alchemy web and understand the basic concepts on how to make this a profitable venture. However, I guarantee that the majority of goblins also lost out on profits in any of these professions by not predicting or adapting their plans for the above changes to Heavenly Shards. I've seen few gold-making blogs out there that put strong emphasis on stockpiling Heavenly Shards pre-patch. The effect: a market of Shards that continues with low supply and high markups. The larger effect: increased/increasing enchanting scroll prices, increased Greater Celesial prices, steady Maelstrom prices (despite the increased supply), and steady ore prices. While the demand for ore is already at an extremely high threshold, the ultra-high demand for Heavenly Shards has helped shufflers legitimize their routine even more. 
• On a day-to-day level, it's even more important to understand the connections between raw materials to maximize your profits. If you see the market flooded with Heavenly Shards and lacking in well-priced ore, you can assume that the price in shards will ultimately increase as long as the low supply of ore continues. You can also naturally assume that the Enchant Weapon - Landslides and other high-end scrolls that are now selling for 1100g will increase as the market realizes a decrease on the supply end. Have the patience to see these market corrections through. 

3. Understand market volatility and posting trends.

• While it's important to keep a strong buying strategy, don't be afraid to adapt that strategy to the market conditions and always be ready to predict a change to your strategy. Understand the daily/weekly patterns that go through the AH with raw materials. Most servers are extremely active in buying early in the reset as many players need to gem, enchant and augment (belt buckles, etc.) new gear they acquired from raiding and conquest points (PvP equivalent). Most servers also become less active as the week continues and less and less players are acquiring new gear. Naturally, this leads to higher prices on produced goods early in the week (cut gems, enchants, belt buckles, etc.). However, as I have found on my server, this also leads to quite a unique situation in regards to raw materials in which  prices are actually lower and supply is higher mid-week than on the weekend. I would assume this is because people are less-focused on stockpiling during the week, as they are busy providing produced goods, which allows ore supply to stay long enough on the AH to accumulate undercuts. 
• Regardless, identify these trends and use them to manipulate the markets in your overall macro strategy. Additionally, identify the sellers during high-supply conditions and see if they are willing to negotiate a business relationship. I guarantee they would be more willing to make concessions when their supplies are consistently being undercut on the AH. 

4. Don't be afraid to stockpile. The more gold you invest, the more profit you make.

• This is the key point I wanted to harp on in regards to raw materials and more specifically, elementium ore. You can't ever have enough. At least in this market where the demand for enchants, gems, new gear, and item enhancements are at a peak. You need to have the confidence that this market will not dissipate in a week. It won't. While the rise in prices can be steep, the decline is always gradual. Furthermore, with proper manipulation, you can actually artificially increase prices to maximize your profit. The perfect example of this is stockpiling. By buying up all the well-priced ore, you are able to not only control the price of ore, but also control the supply of gems. Unless your server is chock-full of stockpilers who are willing to take losses to stop you, you are guaranteed to make strong returns. 
• In conjunction with my previous point on market trends, it's important to understand the best time to post. As a stockpiler however, I will typically post my gems at any and all times as long as they don't drop below my breakpoints. On certain occasions, I will reset the price or wait for the price to reset itself, but my general strategy is to mass produce gems. However, certain items stockpiled items like high-end enchanting scrolls, pets, or even mounts for the most adept goblins, are better off sold during peak times, as their market volatility is higher on a pure gold margin basis. 

5. Final point: be logistically prepared!

• The most important point I would make here is to have proper addons that can not only track your AH activities, item production, and investments, but also track them efficiently. The most important for me would be: Auctionator (which is an absolute must-have for any goblin), TradeskillMaster (which greatly cuts down your time spent not only producing items, but posting and cancelling them on the AH), Postal or Mailget, and the Auctioneer bundle. 
• Devote your in-game time (if possible) during peak hours to your micro strategy. Babysit your high-demand and high-profit items (red gems, enchanting scrolls, mounts, pets, etc.) and make sure to keep a steady stream of supply up once yours go down.